What’s 2011 going to bring for Zimbabwe? Idasa outlines four possible scenarios.

Zimbabwe’s Constitutional Parliamentary Committee (Copac) will complete the drafting of the new foundation law for Zimbabwe in mid-2011. A referendum on the new law will be conducted in September and a YES response will be attained. Presidential elections will then be called for early December 2011. Likely? Nope, according to SITO’s current Zimbabwe fellow, Dr John Makumbe, who has drawn up four possible scenarios in a paper entitled “Zimbabwe in 2011/2012: Political Scenario Mapping”. In the end all he can say with certainty is that “2010 ended on a rather sour note for most politicians in Zimbabwe” and “Zimbabwe’s current political arrangement is increasingly untenable”. But he also says a lot more besides – click here for this fascinating analysis.

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